After much contemplation and anticipation, I have once again decided to share my thoughts on the current political landscape in Tigray. Recently, during the 14th General Assembly of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), I happened to be in Mekelle. Although my visit to the city was primarily to visit family, it coincided with this significant political event. This unplanned intersection offered me the rare opportunity to listen and engage with residents of Mekelle, including some of my closest friends and relatives. What unfolded was a deeper understanding of the opinions and sentiments of the people concerning the present political environment in Tigray.

While any attempt to categorize political opinions into neat boxes is an oversimplification, I’ve tried to distill the varied perspectives into three main groups. These groups represent the broader spectrum of political thought that I encountered during my conversations.

My personal journey of ethnic identification has been complex. Raised in Addis Ababa with an Amhara cultural influence and a pan-Ethiopian identity, I found myself grappling with my Tigray ancestry. The recent conflict in Tigray was a turning point, shedding light on my ethnic identity when I was seen and profiled as Tigrayan. This led me to embrace my Tigray heritage openly and confidently.

Ethiopia, in my view, can only emerge strong if it draws on the strength of all its ethnic groups. A bottom-up approach, where each ethnic group contributes to the union, is essential for the nation's political, social, and economic transformation. In line with this belief, I am committed to focusing on the Tigray region's development as a foundation for a strong and united Ethiopia and advice others to commit to what they are identified to, whether pan-Ethiopian or any ethnic group.

Ethiopia's experiment with ethnic federalism offers valuable insights into managing ethnic diversity and striving for equitable governance in a complex and changing world. While presenting challenges and sparking debate, it also demonstrates the potential for diverse societies to negotiate differences and strive for unity. The future success of this system in Ethiopia will significantly depend on the country's ability to strengthen its institutions and address socio-economic disparities.

The scramble for influence in the Horn of Africa, exemplified by the active involvement of the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt in Ethiopia's internal conflicts, can be partially attributed to the reduced engagement of the United States in the region. This shift has allowed Middle Eastern powers, along with Egypt as a proxy power, to exert greater influence, seeking to fill the strategic void left by the U.S. The resulting dynamics are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa with significant implications for regional stability, international relations, and the lives of the people in these nations.

In the tapestry of Ethiopian politics, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has long been a dominant thread, exerting significant influence in the northern region of Tigray and, for many years, at the national level as well. As the Tigray region grapples with ongoing crises, many observers and stakeholders are asking whether the TPLF can deploy its political acumen, organizational capabilities, and grassroots networks to steer the region toward stability and progress.

The human toll of the Tigray conflict is beyond numerical estimation, a tragedy deeply felt in the tears of Tigrayan mothers grieving their lost children. This gruesome crisis did not emerge overnight; it was the culmination of years of insidious planning and veiled motives. Who initiated this horrific campaign? Who are the culprits behind the designs that appear to have genocidal intentions against the Tigrayan population? What are their underlying motives?

Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, has always fascinated economists and policymakers. It registered double-digit economic growth for several years under former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, despite lacking significant natural resources and direct access to a seaport.

However, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party, the nation seems to be diverting its focus towards the necessity of having a port for economic growth. This shift raises the question: is a port truly indispensable for Ethiopia’s development, or can effective economic models render this traditional requirement moot?

In the wake of a devastating war involving Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party and the Amhara Fano militia, the people of Tigray have continued to face hardships. Thousands have been killed, and the collective trauma remains palpable. Despite these tribulations, many held out hope that the peace accords reached between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia’s central government would mark the beginning of a return to normalcy.

The dissolution of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has raised questions about the viability of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within Ethiopia’s political landscape. The rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the emergence of the Prosperity Party have shifted the dynamics, with some attributing Ethiopia’s current state to perceived weaknesses, internal power struggles, and corruption within the TPLF leadership. However, given the TPLF’s historical significance and role in shaping Ethiopia’s political framework, it may still play a key role in the country’s path to recovery, reconstruction, and stability.

To effectively embrace this role, the TPLF must conduct a thorough pre-mortem analysis, hypothesizing potential setbacks or failures to identify and address internal and external vulnerabilities. This approach is particularly critical in the wake of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and the Prosperity Party’s policies, which are leading the country towards disintegration. Strong parties from the Tigray and Amhara regions are pivotal in redirecting Ethiopia from this trajectory.

Recently, I had the opportunity to delve into Dr. Haile’s comprehensive two-episode analysis on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) featured on Dedebit Media. His approach seamlessly intertwines historical context with a logical examination of the current political landscape in Ethiopia. As someone who has written extensively about the TPLF and the evolving political situation in the country, I found his insights particularly resonant.

Dr. Haile’s analysis highlights the internal challenges and conflicts within the TPLF leadership, suggesting that these issues could significantly contribute to the party’s eventual decline. His perspective offers a nuanced understanding of the TPLF’s complex dynamics, which have been pivotal in shaping Ethiopia’s recent history.

The layered tapestry of Ethiopian history and its current predicament is woven with threads of conflict that have been knotted and tangled over decades, making it increasingly difficult to separate one strand from another. For someone in their 50s living in Ethiopia, the panorama of their lifetime is dominated by a series of armed conflicts, each casting its dark shadow over different regions and times. From the Red Terror to the Ethio-Somali War, the 17-year civil war, the Ethio-Eritrean conflict, and most recently the wars in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara—these events have left a brutal imprint on Ethiopia’s national psyche. They have not only shaped but also disrupted the potential of generations, essentially decimating the country’s most valuable resource—its youth.

In the wake of a devastating conflict and the peace settlement inked in Pretoria, South Africa, many Tigray politicians are vocalizing the urgent need for robust leadership during this critical transition and reconstruction period. A central question now emerges: who possesses the capability to spearhead this pivotal phase?