The Interim Administration of Tigray (IAT): Analysis and Recommendations

Background

The Interim Administration of Tigray (IAT) was established following the Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). This agreement aimed to end the devastating conflict in the Tigray region and set the foundation for a transitional governance structure. The IAT’s mandate, as stipulated by the Pretoria Agreement, includes:

1. Ensuring Peace and Stability:

   • Consolidating peace in Tigray by fostering unity and resolving internal conflicts.
   • Facilitating disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of armed forces.

2. Humanitarian Access and Recovery:

   • Ensuring unhindered humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas.
   • Overseeing the return of displaced persons to their communities and restoring livelihoods.

3. Restoration of Services and Reconstruction:

   • Rebuilding critical infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and transportation networks.
   • Restoring basic government services and ensuring the functionality of state institutions.

4. Facilitating a Democratic Transition:

   • Preparing the region for free and fair elections.
   • Promoting political dialogue and inclusivity to lay the groundwork for long-term stability.

5. Addressing Territorial Integrity:

   • Working toward resolving disputes over territories within the constitutional boundaries of Tigray.
   • Advocating for the withdrawal of foreign forces occupying Tigrayan land.

Composition and Structure

• Inclusive Representation: The IAT was designed to be inclusive, comprising members from various groups, including the TPLF, Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), the Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS), and other local parties. This inclusivity was intended to ensure broad-based support for the Interim Administration

• Dominance of TPLF: As a principal signatory of the peace agreement, the TPLF was allocated a majority stake in the IAT, holding 50% plus one of the seats. The remaining positions were distributed among other groups to reflect the region's diverse political landscape.

• Structural Changes: While the state parliament and upper levels of government were dismantled and replaced by the IAT, the bureaucratic structures at the zonal and woreda levels remained largely unchanged, retaining their pre-conflict configurations.

Inefficiencies of the Interim Administration

After two years of operation, the IAT has failed to implement any of the mandates assigned to it under the Pretoria Agreement. This complete failure has left the region without tangible progress on peacebuilding, reconstruction, or governance. The inefficiencies can be attributed to several interconnected factors:

• Internal Power Struggles • Factionalism within TPLF: Initially the TPLF has been plagued by internal divisions, notably between factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael (PHD) and Getachew Reda. These internal conflicts have led to mutual accusations of undermining the party's objectives and have significantly hampered the administration's functionality.

• Leadership Disputes: The 14th General Assembly was convened to address these divisions, resulting in the expulsion of key figures, including the president of the interim administration. However, those expelled contested their removal, leading to a prolonged power struggle that further destabilized the administration.

Entrenched Patronage System

• Continuation of Patronage: The IAT has been criticized for perpetuating a patronage system, wherein appointments are made based on loyalty rather than merit. This practice has led to inefficiencies, corruption, and weakened institutional integrity, undermining the administration's ability to govern effectively.

• Resistance from Local Bureaucracies: Zonal and woreda officials, many of whom were elected before the conflict, have resisted changes imposed by the IAT. They assert their constitutional legitimacy and accuse the interim administration of bypassing their authority, leading to administrative gridlock.

Overextension of Mandate

• Focus on Democratization: Some factions within the IAT have attempted to expand their mandate to include democratization and political reforms. These groups consider the Interim Administration as a government with a wider mandate of establishing a political landscape which is not dominated by TPLF (de-TPLFication). These efforts have diverted attention from the immediate post-conflict reconstruction needs and have alienated the immediate need of the people.

Lack of Control over Security Forces

• Autonomy of TDF: The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), although represented in the IAT, operate with a significant degree of autonomy. This lack of direct control has hindered the administration's ability to enforce decisions and maintain law and order effectively.

External Interference

• Federal Government's Role: The Ethiopian federal government has been perceived as exploiting internal divisions within the IAT to weaken the TPLF's dominance. By unofficially supporting certain factions, the federal government has further complicated the region's political dynamics.

Risks and Consequences of Continued Inefficiency

The ongoing inefficiencies within the IAT pose several risks:

1. Humanitarian Crisis: The continued suffering of the Tigrayan people due to unresolved governance issues and lack of effective administration.
2. Collapse of Peace Agreement: The potential breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement, which could lead to a resurgence of conflict in the region.
3. Territorial Disputes: Ongoing occupation of Tigrayan territories by foreign forces, such as Eritrean troops, and the displacement of local populations.
4. Stalled Reconstruction: Inability to rebuild infrastructure and restore essential services, hindering the region's recovery.
5. Political Fragmentation: Erosion of the TPLF's historical role, leading to further destabilization of Tigray's political landscape.

Recommendations for Addressing Inefficiencies

Strengthening Unified Leadership

1. Unified Command: With the TPLF now a unified party, the focus should be on consolidating this unity to present strong and decisive leadership capable of guiding the IAT effectively. TPLF should take the leadership role within IAT immediately. TDF should assist realizing the transition.

Institutional Reforms

1. Merit-Based Appointments: Transition from a patronage system to meritocracy by appointing qualified individuals to leadership roles, thereby enhancing institutional effectiveness.
2. Capacity Building: Invest in rebuilding the capacity of state institutions to ensure efficient service delivery and governance.

Enhanced Security Collaboration

4. Integration with TDF: Establish clear lines of authority and collaboration between the IAT and the TDF to maintain law and order and support governance efforts. Engagement with Federal Authorities

5. The IAT should focus on maintaining independence from external interference while engaging with the federal government on strictly defined terms that respect Tigray's autonomy. Any dialogue should prioritize the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement without allowing undue influence that could undermine the TPLF's position or weaken its governance in the region.

Public Engagement and Transparency

6. Rebuild Trust: Engage with the public transparently, addressing grievances and demonstrating commitment to the region's recovery through tangible actions.

Adherence to Peace Agreements

7. Implement Accord Provisions: Strictly adhere to the terms of the Pretoria Agreement to maintain peace and attract international support for reconstruction efforts.

Conclusion

The IAT’s inefficiencies have deepened Tigray’s post-conflict challenges, risking further destabilization. To address these issues, the TPLF and other stakeholders must prioritize unity, institutional reform, and adherence to the Pretoria Agreement. Strengthening governance, rebuilding trust, and focusing on tangible outcomes will be critical to ensuring peace, stability, and progress for the people of Tigray. Without decisive action, the region risks a return to conflict and prolonged suffering.