Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, has always fascinated economists and policymakers. It registered double-digit economic growth for several years under former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, despite lacking significant natural resources and direct access to a seaport.

However, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party, the nation seems to be diverting its focus towards the necessity of having a port for economic growth. This shift raises the question: is a port truly indispensable for Ethiopia’s development, or can effective economic models render this traditional requirement moot?

In the wake of a devastating war involving Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party and the Amhara Fano militia, the people of Tigray have continued to face hardships. Thousands have been killed, and the collective trauma remains palpable. Despite these tribulations, many held out hope that the peace accords reached between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia’s central government would mark the beginning of a return to normalcy.

The dissolution of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has raised questions about the viability of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within Ethiopia’s political landscape. The rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the emergence of the Prosperity Party have shifted the dynamics, with some attributing Ethiopia’s current state to perceived weaknesses, internal power struggles, and corruption within the TPLF leadership. However, given the TPLF’s historical significance and role in shaping Ethiopia’s political framework, it may still play a key role in the country’s path to recovery, reconstruction, and stability.

To effectively embrace this role, the TPLF must conduct a thorough pre-mortem analysis, hypothesizing potential setbacks or failures to identify and address internal and external vulnerabilities. This approach is particularly critical in the wake of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and the Prosperity Party’s policies, which are leading the country towards disintegration. Strong parties from the Tigray and Amhara regions are pivotal in redirecting Ethiopia from this trajectory.

Recently, I had the opportunity to delve into Dr. Haile’s comprehensive two-episode analysis on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) featured on Dedebit Media. His approach seamlessly intertwines historical context with a logical examination of the current political landscape in Ethiopia. As someone who has written extensively about the TPLF and the evolving political situation in the country, I found his insights particularly resonant.

Dr. Haile’s analysis highlights the internal challenges and conflicts within the TPLF leadership, suggesting that these issues could significantly contribute to the party’s eventual decline. His perspective offers a nuanced understanding of the TPLF’s complex dynamics, which have been pivotal in shaping Ethiopia’s recent history.

The layered tapestry of Ethiopian history and its current predicament is woven with threads of conflict that have been knotted and tangled over decades, making it increasingly difficult to separate one strand from another. For someone in their 50s living in Ethiopia, the panorama of their lifetime is dominated by a series of armed conflicts, each casting its dark shadow over different regions and times. From the Red Terror to the Ethio-Somali War, the 17-year civil war, the Ethio-Eritrean conflict, and most recently the wars in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara—these events have left a brutal imprint on Ethiopia’s national psyche. They have not only shaped but also disrupted the potential of generations, essentially decimating the country’s most valuable resource—its youth.

In the wake of a devastating conflict and the peace settlement inked in Pretoria, South Africa, many Tigray politicians are vocalizing the urgent need for robust leadership during this critical transition and reconstruction period. A central question now emerges: who possesses the capability to spearhead this pivotal phase?