The Unending Cycle: Ethiopia’s Crises from Red Terror to the Prosperity Party’s Precipice
The layered tapestry of Ethiopian history and its current predicament is woven with threads of conflict that have been knotted and tangled over decades, making it increasingly difficult to separate one strand from another. For someone in their 50s living in Ethiopia, the panorama of their lifetime is dominated by a series of armed conflicts, each casting its dark shadow over different regions and times. From the Red Terror to the Ethio-Somali War, the 17-year civil war, the Ethio-Eritrean conflict, and most recently the wars in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara—these events have left a brutal imprint on Ethiopia’s national psyche. They have not only shaped but also disrupted the potential of generations, essentially decimating the country’s most valuable resource—its youth.
The Horn of Africa’s Relentless Turmoil
The Horn of Africa at large, apart from some pockets of relative stability like Kenya and Djibouti, has been engulfed in what appears to be an endless cycle of violence and upheaval. The factors contributing to these conflicts are deeply complex, rooted in history, ethnic diversity, resource scarcity, and geopolitical considerations. This labyrinthine web makes it particularly challenging to arrive at clear-cut solutions.
The Western Blind Spot
In analyzing the complexities of the Horn, Western political thought often fails to engage in the nuance required for such intricate challenges. Strategies that appear sound in policy briefs or academic papers are frequently reductionist when applied to the local context, lacking in cultural sensitivity and depth of understanding. As a result, they often exacerbate tensions rather than relieve them.
Further exacerbating the Western blind spot is the often paternalistic approach adopted by external actors who, consciously or unconsciously, see themselves as arbiters capable of ‘fixing’ African problems with Western solutions. This not only sidelines local voices and experts but also fosters a form of neo-colonialism that undermines the sovereignty and self-determination of the nations involved. Western policies, often shaped by a cocktail of humanitarian concerns, geopolitical interests, and economic considerations, may momentarily appear successful but are rarely sustainable in the long term. They often neglect the intricate social fabrics, historical grievances, and local power dynamics that are key to any lasting resolution. This oversimplified approach risks perpetuating a cycle of dependency and instability, further entrenching the challenges faced by countries like Ethiopia.
The Era of Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party
The meteoric rise of Abiy Ahmed to Ethiopia’s highest political office was not merely a fortuitous turn of events or the ascendance of a charismatic leader; it was an acute manifestation of simmering internal power struggles among the country’s political elites. At the time of his rise, Ethiopia was caught in a whirlwind of socio-political discontent. Massive protests erupted in regions like Oromia and Amhara, driven by demands for greater political participation, autonomy, and economic opportunities. Within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), there was a fractious debate over how to respond to these growing public pressures. Ahmed, hailing from the Oromo ethnic group—which represents a significant proportion of the population but had been historically marginalized in Ethiopian politics—emerged as a compromise candidate. He seemed to embody a bridge between divergent aspirations: a person who could appease dissatisfied ethnic constituencies while also rallying the existing power structures around a new vision.
However, the enormous weight of expectations placed upon Ahmed and his nascent Prosperity Party soon revealed that his rise was more a symptom of Ethiopia’s deep-rooted issues rather than a solution to them. His governance has, in many respects, exposed the fault lines within the Ethiopian state—fault lines that originate from a failure to offer genuine political participation, build impartial institutions, and create economic opportunities for a burgeoning young population. The ensuing conflicts in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara are testaments to the unfulfilled promises and the continuing struggle to respond effectively to Ethiopia’s complex challenges.
Unfolding Tragedies in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara
The war in Tigray has commanded global headlines, but it is just one part of a larger mosaic of conflict. The violence in Oromia, a region already fraught with tension and dissent, has spiked, signaling a significant challenge to the Prosperity Party’s vision for a unified Ethiopia. In the Amhara region, nationalist sentiments have been inflamed due to territorial disputes with Tigray and internal conflicts, adding further complexity to an already fragile situation.
A Crumbling Economy
To add to this grim tableau, Ethiopia’s once-vibrant economy, which had been growing in double digits for years, has unraveled. The ripple effects of conflict, administrative failures, and a loss of investor confidence have dealt a devastating blow to the economic fabric of the nation.
Amid this unraveling, sectors that once promised to be the backbone of Ethiopia’s economic resurgence are facing unprecedented setbacks. The tourism industry, which banked on Ethiopia’s rich history and natural beauty, is languishing due to safety concerns. Agriculture, the primary source of livelihood for a vast majority of Ethiopians, is crippled by disruptions in supply chains and declining investments in infrastructure, aggravated further by internal conflicts that displace farmers and decimate local markets. Foreign direct investment, once buoyed by the country’s status as an emerging market, has plummeted as businesses grow wary of the unstable political climate. Additionally, the skyrocketing inflation and depreciating currency are imposing an economic hardship on the everyday life of Ethiopians, compounding issues of poverty and unemployment. This economic downturn is not merely a phase; it’s a downward spiral that threatens to undo years of progress, adding another layer of complexity to Ethiopia’s multifaceted crises.
Conclusion: A Multi-Faceted Crisis Requires a Multi-Faceted Solution
The unfulfilled promise of Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party has culminated in an existential crisis for Ethiopia. For those who have lived through the repetitive cycle of conflicts, the current situation is not just another episode; it is a dire warning that systemic failures need urgent address. A multi-faceted approach—one that acknowledges the internal complexities and offers nuanced, locally-sourced solutions—is critical for charting a path out of this grim cycle. Both internal reflection from Ethiopians and external humility from international actors are needed to understand the full scope of these crises and to forge a lasting peace. The imperative for action is urgent; the stakes are not just political but human, measured in lives lost and generations scarred.
