The dissolution of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has raised questions about the viability of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within Ethiopia’s political landscape. The rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the emergence of the Prosperity Party have shifted the dynamics, with some attributing Ethiopia’s current state to perceived weaknesses, internal power struggles, and corruption within the TPLF leadership. However, given the TPLF’s historical significance and role in shaping Ethiopia’s political framework, it may still play a key role in the country’s path to recovery, reconstruction, and stability.

To effectively embrace this role, the TPLF must conduct a thorough pre-mortem analysis, hypothesizing potential setbacks or failures to identify and address internal and external vulnerabilities. This approach is particularly critical in the wake of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and the Prosperity Party’s policies, which are leading the country towards disintegration. Strong parties from the Tigray and Amhara regions are pivotal in redirecting Ethiopia from this trajectory.

Key Areas for TPLF’s Pre-mortem Analysis

1. Internal Leadership and Governance: The TPLF must assess risks related to internal power dynamics and leadership crises. Implementing a system of checks and balances to withstand leadership changes and curb corruption is crucial.

2. Ethnic and Regional Tensions: As the architect of the federal system, the TPLF must critically evaluate its role in escalating or mitigating ethnic and regional tensions, particularly in Tigray and its neighboring regions.

3. Federal Relationships: The TPLF’s interactions with Ethiopia’s federal government, currently represented by the Prosperity Party, need careful examination. The party should explore legal frameworks to challenge the Prosperity Party’s policies without resorting to conflict.

4. International Diplomacy: The TPLF’s impact on international relations is significant. Evaluating the risks of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or loss of foreign support is essential. Engaging with the international community to reveal the true nature of the Prosperity Party is crucial for the post-Abiy Ahmed era.

5. Economic Resilience: Understanding the economic challenges in the Tigray region, including resource allocation and potential sanctions, is critical. The TPLF’s strategies for economic management under duress require thorough evaluation.

6. Public Perception: Assessing public sentiment towards the TPLF in Tigray and across Ethiopia is crucial. Without public support, the party’s viability is at risk, exposing it to numerous challenges.

7. Security and Military Concerns: Evaluating the TPLF’s military capabilities and the risks posed by internal or external conflicts is vital. A strong military presence is a key deterrent against potential adversaries.

8. Information Management: The TPLF must navigate the risks associated with controlling or disseminating information, including potential misinformation, propaganda, or communication challenges.

This pre-mortem analysis serves as a strategic tool for the TPLF to anticipate, prepare for, and mitigate potential future challenges. By identifying vulnerabilities and formulating robust strategies, the TPLF can strengthen its position and effectively contribute to Ethiopia’s future.